The Guardian reports that fighting between the army of the Burmese junta and Shan minority forces in the border state of Kokang have caused thousands of Burmese to do a runner into China. Moreover, the Shan separatist media (www.shanland.org) claim that some of the fighting was so close to the border that a People’s Liberation Army soldier copped a fatal Burmese Army bullet. Now, neither of these events, if factual, will be sufficient to trigger real Chinese counter-action; but it must be one more step in the gradual process by which China loses patience with its basket-case neighbour.
Obviously, China approves of the current form of government in Burma, and of its pariah (i.e. Chinese client) status; but it is at least supposed to be a proper tyranny, and keep the peace on China’s borders, keeping stroppy ethnic minorities in order. China has quite enough of its own minorities in Yunnan Province, who are quiet enough for now, but who knows how they might react to a continuing refugee flow, or for that matter to a greatly stepped-up PLA presence on what has hitherto been a fairly porous border?
Incidentally, it so happens that the capital of the Burmese state of Kokang, where all these refugees are supposed to be running away from, is called Laogai. Now that, in Chinese, is the name of the prison camp system, a rough synonym for Gulag. It’d be rather a bitter irony if the poor old Burmese refugees ended up there…
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