Let's face it: Russia is dying

The BBC reports that Mr Bill Browder, head of a company called Hermitage Capital and once the largest foreign investor in Russia, has now described that large and empty country as “essentially a criminal state”. One’s first reaction is that Mr Browder, who has had far better opportunities for observation than most of us, has taken rather a long time to realise this. But then none of us has been particularly quick off the mark in grasping what has been right in front of our noses for years. Their representatives are still polluting the G8, the Council of Europe and other supposedly civilised institutions. We still pretend politely to take Mr Vladimir Putin seriously.

But I think we can accept Mr Browder’s solidly grounded appraisal as the definitive word on Russia. On the world stage it is the equivalent of the shaven-headed and tattooed drunk who waylays you in incomprehensibly threatening terms in the centre of Wigan at two on a Saturday morning. It constitutes a permanent threat to its neighbours. Its rampant gangsterism is actually worse than totalitarianism: whereas China’s oppression of the minorities in its border areas is at least motivated by trying to preserve order, Russia prefers to allow gangster enclaves to proliferate all around its borders (Uzbekistan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Transdnistria, arguably Kaliningrad). The Soviet Union used to be described, most aptly, as “Upper Volta with rockets”. Progress of a sort has been made, and modern Russia might best be described as Moss Side with rockets.

And then they come over here, buying up nice parts of London and football clubs. Yes, they bring lots of money in, but we try not to think too hard about how some of that money was obtained. (To be fair, as Mr Browder has now ascertained, it is difficult to make money honestly in Russia, even with the best will in the world.)

But can one simply give up on such a large and powerful country? The answer is that we may have to. It’s dying. The population is falling steadily; male life expectancy is already well below 60 (and considerably lower than that for anyone getting on the wrong side of the regime). The place is even more sodden with vodka than a British town centre on a Saturday morning. The strategic balance which existed during the Cold War will soon be restored by the rise of China (which will have annexed Siberia by 2050). I mentioned once that my children looked at me blankly when I mentioned a country called East Germany: their grandchildren may be equally fogged by the mention of Russia.

OK, some will find this “offensive”, but don’t be too quick to start throwing the word “racist” around. It’s nothing to do with race. It’s simply that what happened there between 1917 and 1991 has poisoned an entire nation to death, as if with polonium-210. Regard for human life and dignity was permanently destroyed by Stalin et al. For a while it looked like the old traditions of Russia, notably those of the Orthodox Church, might provide a focus for a genuine revival. But the wound is clearly too deep; the Church, which was always that way inclined, has largely thrown in its lot with thuggish nationalism.

It’s sad. Dostoyevsky will always be among my top half-dozen writers; Solzhenitsyn and Shostakovich made admirable efforts to keep the flag flying through the 20th. But it’s gone. No point in denial. A terminal case. Let’s just hope its demise isn’t too painful for the rest of us.